Matagalpavs
UNAN Managua
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 9/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UNAN Managua · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Matagalpa 0-1 UNAN Managua, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Matagalpa 1-0 UNAN Managua
Original prediction
UNAN Managua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.4% | 25.4% | -20.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.26 | 27.9% | 48.0% | 20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.1 pts
Projected Score
Matagalpa 0–1 UNAN Managua
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
UNAN Managua
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
UNAN Managua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80