Matagalpavs
Real Estelí
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Estelí · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Matagalpa 0-2 Real Estelí, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Matagalpa 1-4 Real Estelí
Original prediction
Real Estelí
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.14 | 14.8% | 9.9% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.1% | 19.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 63.1% | 70.7% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Projected Score
Matagalpa 0–2 Real Estelí
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Real Estelí
Probability
70.7%
Model confidence
70.7%
Real Estelí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MatagalpaLWLWW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Real EstelíLDDWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MatagalpaReal Estelí
14.8Attack56.7
40.7Defence76.7
33.3Form60.0
33.7Power63.4
0.44xG1.96