Matagalpavs
Rancho Santana
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 8/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matagalpa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matagalpa 0-1 Rancho Santana
Original prediction
Matagalpa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.2% | 46.4% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.5% | 25.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.72 | 19.3% | 27.8% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Matagalpa
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Matagalpa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00