Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Diriangén · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matagalpa 0-3 Diriangén
Original prediction
Diriangén
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.43 | 20.5% | 16.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.1% | 22.5% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 54.4% | 61.2% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Diriangén
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Diriangén has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MatagalpaWLWWL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
DiriangénDWWLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MatagalpaDiriangén
16.7Attack66.7
45.8Defence66.7
37.5Form71.4
37.1Power70.1
0.68xG1.94