Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto
Original prediction
FC Porto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.34 | 9.1% | 15.0% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.34 | 17.7% | 20.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 73.2% | 64.7% | -8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaritimoDLLLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FC PortoWWWLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MaritimoFC Porto
38.1Attack85.7
42.9Defence85.7
38.1Form100.0
42.7Power91.6
0.75xG2.36