Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maritimo 0-3 Benfica
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.15 | 7.8% | 27.0% | 19.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.13 | 15.4% | 24.2% | 8.9 pts |
| Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 48.8% | -28.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaritimoLDWWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BenficaWWWWD
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MaritimoBenfica
50.0Attack100.0
58.3Defence66.7
58.3Form77.8
58.8Power76.6
1.29xG1.49