Marekvs
Pirin Blagoevgrad
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marek · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Marek 1-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Marek 3-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
Original prediction
Marek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 73.2% | 55.1% | -18.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.14 | 17.6% | 25.4% | 7.9 pts |
| Away | 9.84 | 9.2% | 19.5% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.1 pts
Projected Score
Marek 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Marek
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Marek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarekLWDWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Pirin BlagoevgradLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
MarekPirin Blagoevgrad
29.2Attack12.5
62.5Defence0.0
41.7Form0.0
46.6Power9.5
1.57xG0.55