Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marek · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Marek 1-0 Nesebar
Original prediction
Marek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.4% | 38.4% | -16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.8% | 26.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.78 | 18.8% | 34.7% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Marek
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Marek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarekDWLLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NesebarDWWWL
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MarekNesebar
33.3Attack72.2
66.7Defence50.0
38.9Form55.6
48.2Power55.9
1.13xG1.30