Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beroe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Marek 0-0 Beroe, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Marek 3-2 Beroe
Original prediction
Beroe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 32.3% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 30.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.4% | 37.2% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.8 pts
Projected Score
Marek 0–0 Beroe
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Beroe
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Beroe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MarekWDLWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BeroeWWLWD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarekBeroe
33.3Attack48.5
63.6Defence63.6
42.4Form54.5
47.9Power57.1
0.76xG0.99