Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria
Original prediction
Mantova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.3% | 40.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 30.0% | 28.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 28.6% | 30.7% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MantovaDLWWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SampdoriaLLDLW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MantovaSampdoria
41.2Attack33.3
50.9Defence0.0
38.6Form0.0
45.9Power15.3
1.43xG1.11