Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mantova 2-2 Pisa
Original prediction
Mantova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 34.7% | 42.7% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.9% | 27.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 36.3% | 29.4% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MantovaWDLWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PisaLLWWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MantovaPisa
66.7Attack44.7
100.0Defence52.6
100.0Form40.4
88.7Power48.2
1.65xG0.95