Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mantova 3-1 Empoli
Original prediction
Mantova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.5% | 42.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.3% | 26.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 25.2% | 31.1% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MantovaWWLWW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EmpoliWDDDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
MantovaEmpoli
41.2Attack41.2
50.9Defence52.6
38.6Form36.0
45.9Power44.7
1.26xG1.10