Manchester Unitedvs
Tottenham
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham
Original prediction
Manchester United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 55.0% | 51.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 23.1% | 24.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60