Manchester Unitedvs
Manchester City
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/13/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 31.0% | 30.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 25.3% | 25.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 43.7% | 44.2% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00