Manchester Unitedvs
Ipswich
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 8/30/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United 5-2 Ipswich
Original prediction
Manchester United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 68.9% | 40.6% | -28.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.08 | 18.8% | 25.1% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 7.70 | 12.4% | 34.4% | 22.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80