Manchester Unitedvs
Bournemouth
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/25/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth
Original prediction
Manchester United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 40.3% | 47.7% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.8% | 24.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 32.0% | 27.6% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20