Manchester City Wvs
Real Madrid W
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League Women · 10/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City W 1-1 Real Madrid W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 55.6% | 39.0% | -16.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.1% | 25.3% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.09 | 22.4% | 35.7% | 13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.14 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00