Manchester Cityvs
Sunderland
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 71.0% | 59.5% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.32 | 17.9% | 22.5% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 8.62 | 11.1% | 18.0% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60