Manchester Cityvs
Norwich
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/17/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City 5-0 Norwich
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 83.5% | 43.4% | -40.1 pts |
| Draw | 8.69 | 10.8% | 23.2% | 12.4 pts |
| Away | 16.39 | 5.7% | 33.4% | 27.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-40.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40