Manchester Cityvs
Ipswich
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City 3-2 Ipswich
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 76.2% | 71.8% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.63 | 14.3% | 16.0% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 10.03 | 9.5% | 12.3% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
71.8%
Model confidence
71.8%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00