Manchester Cityvs
Coventry
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester City 1-0 Coventry
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 82.2% | 60.6% | -21.6 pts |
| Draw | 8.29 | 11.5% | 20.9% | 9.4 pts |
| Away | 15.15 | 6.3% | 18.4% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40