Managuavs
Real Estelí
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 9/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Managua · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Managua 1-1 Real Estelí
Original prediction
Managua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.1% | 41.5% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.8% | 25.9% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 37.2% | 32.6% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Managua
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Managua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20