Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Managua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Managua 3-3 Diriangén
Original prediction
Managua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.7% | 46.1% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 26.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.8% | 27.6% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Managua
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Managua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ManaguaWWWWW
GF 18 · GA 2 · avg 3.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DiriangénWWLLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ManaguaDiriangén
100.0Attack61.1
83.3Defence77.8
100.0Form77.8
93.4Power74.0
1.56xG1.00