Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malmo FF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malmo FF 1-0 Kalmar FF
Original prediction
Malmo FF
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.7% | 56.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.8% | 23.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.55 | 20.4% | 19.9% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Malmo FF
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Malmo FF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Malmo FFWLWDW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Kalmar FFDLLLL
GF 0 · GA 8 · avg 0.00/1.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Malmo FFKalmar FF
56.1Attack31.8
50.0Defence45.5
50.0Form28.8
52.9Power37.3
2.07xG0.83