Maarduvs
Nõmme United II
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/6/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maardu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maardu 2-1 Nõmme United II
Original prediction
Maardu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.2% | 49.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.7% | 18.8% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.1% | 31.4% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Maardu
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Maardu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaarduWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Nõmme United IILLDWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MaarduNõmme United II
55.1Attack55.1
30.8Defence26.9
48.7Form34.6
46.4Power40.9
2.75xG2.13