Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Astrakhan · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lugansk are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Astrakhan are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Astrakhan hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 45.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.6% in the Second League - Group 1, while Astrakhan holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Astrakhan
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
14.6%
Astrakhan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80