Lokomotiv Kyivvs
SK Poltava
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 9/12/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SK Poltava · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2-1 SK Poltava
Original prediction
SK Poltava
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.68 | 24.6% | 31.4% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.6% | 27.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 47.8% | 41.2% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
SK Poltava
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
SK Poltava has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 0 · avg 0.80/0.00