Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsavs
Pirin Blagoevgrad
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 10/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
Original prediction
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.8% | 66.9% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 20.0% | 24.1% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 9.78 | 9.2% | 9.1% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Projected Score
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Probability
66.9%
Model confidence
66.9%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00