Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reggiana · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Livorno are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Reggiana are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Reggiana hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 52.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.8% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Reggiana holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Reggiana
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
13.8%
Reggiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80