Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 3-1 Tottenham
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 53.6% | 49.2% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.5% | 25.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 22.9% | 25.3% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LiverpoolWDDDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TottenhamDLWLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LiverpoolTottenham
77.8Attack100.0
72.2Defence66.7
88.9Form100.0
80.5Power88.7
2.00xG1.08