Liverpoolvs
Nottingham Forest
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 62.8% | 47.3% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.53 | 21.1% | 25.6% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 5.91 | 16.1% | 27.1% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00