Liverpoolvs
Manchester City
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/11/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 32.3% | 31.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.8% | 26.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.9% | 42.3% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60