Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 0-0 Fulham
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 62.5% | 55.4% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 20.6% | 22.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 16.9% | 21.8% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LiverpoolWWDDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FulhamLLWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LiverpoolFulham
66.7Attack44.4
55.6Defence22.2
55.6Form0.0
60.9Power26.7
2.29xG1.14