Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 2-0 Brighton
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 44.6% | 27.9% | -16.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.2% | 24.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.14 | 30.2% | 47.7% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LiverpoolWWWLW
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BrightonDWWWW
GF 14 · GA 0 · avg 2.80/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
LiverpoolBrighton
42.9Attack100.0
61.9Defence76.2
57.1Form76.2
56.1Power80.1
0.93xG1.76