Liverpool Montevideovs
Progreso
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool Montevideo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Liverpool Montevideo 1-0 Progreso, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool Montevideo 3-2 Progreso
Original prediction
Liverpool Montevideo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 55.8% | 56.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.5% | 26.3% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.64 | 19.7% | 16.9% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Projected Score
Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Progreso
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool Montevideo
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Liverpool Montevideo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20