Liverpool Montevideovs
Penarol
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/18/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Liverpool Montevideo 0-0 Penarol, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool Montevideo 1-0 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.20 | 28.4% | 27.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 29.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.4% | 43.0% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Projected Score
Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Penarol
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Liverpool MontevideoDWWWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PenarolDWDWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Liverpool MontevideoPenarol
44.8Attack56.6
67.7Defence72.7
52.1Form67.7
56.0Power66.5
0.76xG1.03