Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Ham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lincoln 0-6 West Ham
Original prediction
West Ham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.68 | 20.1% | 23.3% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.7% | 26.7% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 55.2% | 50.0% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
West Ham
Probability
50.0%
Model confidence
50.0%
West Ham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LincolnLLWWL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
West HamDDLWW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LincolnWest Ham
25.9Attack85.2
59.3Defence55.6
40.7Form59.3
44.9Power64.8
0.76xG1.79