Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lincoln 0-0 Swansea, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lincoln 1-2 Swansea
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 32.1% | 28.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.6% | 30.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 39.3% | 41.4% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Lincoln 0–0 Swansea
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LincolnWWLDD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SwanseaWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LincolnSwansea
28.6Attack52.4
71.4Defence76.2
52.4Form66.7
53.8Power65.7
0.68xG0.98