Lincolnvs
Southampton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lincoln 1-1 Southampton
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.96 | 23.6% | 26.9% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.8% | 26.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 51.6% | 47.0% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80