Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lincoln 4-1 Burnley
Original prediction
Burnley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 33.8% | 31.4% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.6% | 27.6% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.6% | 41.0% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LincolnDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
BurnleyLDWDL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LincolnBurnley
27.3Attack48.5
42.4Defence36.4
36.4Form24.2
37.9Power37.5
1.13xG1.51