Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lincoln 0-0 Blackburn
Original prediction
Lincoln
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.3% | 37.0% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 28.0% | 27.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.8% | 35.7% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LincolnWWLLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BlackburnLLWDW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
LincolnBlackburn
33.3Attack55.6
44.4Defence44.4
33.3Form44.4
40.3Power51.1
1.35xG1.41