Leones Negros UDGvs
Dorados
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones Negros UDG 6-3 Dorados
Original prediction
Leones Negros UDG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 58.7% | 52.9% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.4% | 23.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.88 | 18.9% | 23.9% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Leones Negros UDG
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00