Leones Negros UDGvs
CA La Paz
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones Negros UDG 2-2 CA La Paz
Original prediction
Leones Negros UDG
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.3% | 44.8% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.3% | 23.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.4% | 31.7% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Leones Negros UDG
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40