Leones Negros UDGvs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones Negros UDG · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 4-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leones Negros UDG 1-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Original prediction
Leones Negros UDG
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 68.1% | 82.7% | 14.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 18.8% | 11.1% | -7.7 pts |
| Away | 6.92 | 13.2% | 6.2% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.4–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Leones Negros UDG
Probability
82.7%
Model confidence
82.7%
Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20