Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
León W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
León W 0-2 Juárez W
Original prediction
León W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.1% | 44.9% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.8% | 25.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 35.1% | 30.0% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
León W
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
León W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
León WWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Juárez WWWWWL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
León WJuárez W
71.4Attack33.3
52.4Defence76.2
57.1Form71.4
60.5Power63.6
1.57xG1.11