Goalvio Match Preview
León W hold a narrow model edge over Juárez W in a balanced matchup
León W enter this Liga MX Femenil preview with the model assigning a 41.22% home-win probability, compared with 33.07% for Juárez W and 25.71% for the draw. The projected scoring outlook is competitive: León W are forecast at 1.57 expected goals and Juárez W at 1.34. The match carries a 59.41% BTTS probability, while the Over 2.5 probability is 55.21%, pointing to a credible chance of goals at both ends without indicating a one-sided contest. Recent five-match records are mixed, with León W posting two wins and three losses, while Juárez W have three wins and two losses. Season standings give Juárez W a small edge in rank, wins and points, but their away record includes one win and two losses. León W have also been stronger in overall scoring output, with 15 goals in seven matches, compared with seven for Juárez W. The central tension is therefore clear: the model slightly favours León W, while Juárez W bring the stronger defensive rating and overall power rating.
Key edge
León W's projected 1.57 expected goals versus 1.34 for Juárez W provides the clearest model-based separator. That edge is supported by León W's stronger season scoring record, although Juárez W's 76.2 defensive rating is materially higher than León W's 52.4.
Biggest risk
León W are only a modest model favourite, with a 41.22% home-win probability. Juárez W have the higher power rating at 63.6, compared with 60.5 for León W, and the stronger defensive rating. Those factors could restrict the home side's attacking advantage, while Juárez W's away record of one win and two losses adds uncertainty to their challenge.
Expected match shape
The projections suggest a competitive match with chances for both teams rather than clear dominance. León W have the higher expected-goals figure at 1.57, but Juárez W remain close at 1.34. The 59.41% BTTS probability and 55.21% Over 2.5 probability support an open scoring profile, while the 25.71% draw probability leaves a meaningful possibility of a shared result.
Match finished
- León WTimeJuárez W
- Full time
- 86'A. KaciSubstitution 5
- 86'A. SolorzanoSubstitution 4
- M. A. Rausch TamayoSubstitution 583'
- 82'A. SolorzanoNormal Goal
- 72'A. KaciYellow Card
- V. RazoSubstitution 468'
- C. Lien LeSubstitution 368'
- 65'M. Herrera MongeSubstitution 3
- 65'F. CaicedoSubstitution 2
- 56'D. MartinSubstitution 1
- M. GarciaSubstitution 255'
- K. SotoSubstitution 155'
- V. BolanosYellow Card55'
- 54'R. Galvez LunaYellow Card
- 48'A. SolorzanoNormal Goal
- 47'N. GranadosYellow Card
- HT
- 9'D. MartinYellow Card