GGOALVIO

England · League Cup · 8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leicester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Leicester are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Northampton are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leicester hold a 56.5-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 7.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the League Cup, while Leicester holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leicester

Probability

58.8%

Model confidence

11.3%

Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LeicesterLDWWW

GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NorthamptonWDWDL

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeicesterNorthampton
55.6Attack0.0
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
63.5Power7.0
1.97xG0.98
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