Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leeds · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leeds 4-1 Newcastle
Original prediction
Leeds
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.9% | 38.5% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.6% | 27.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 31.4% | 34.1% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Leeds
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Leeds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeedsLDDWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
NewcastleWDWWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LeedsNewcastle
33.3Attack66.7
77.8Defence55.6
55.6Form55.6
59.1Power60.9
1.38xG1.29