Leedsvs
Manchester United
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leeds · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leeds 1-1 Manchester United
Original prediction
Leeds
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 38.5% | 46.2% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.7% | 26.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 33.8% | 27.7% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Leeds
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Leeds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60