Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leeds · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leeds 1-1 Brentford
Original prediction
Leeds
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 36.2% | 36.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.4% | 27.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 35.4% | 36.0% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Leeds
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Leeds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeedsWWWDW
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BrentfordWWWWD
GF 21 · GA 4 · avg 4.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LeedsBrentford
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power97.0
1.44xG1.45